Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
