Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily homicides monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This data was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the least number of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it could hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.