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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.