Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”