Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
